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AFRL Unveils COVID-19 Forecast Model Dev’t Project

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The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) is developing forecast models to help the government carry out reopening decisions amid the COVID-19 pandemic through the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning.

The models will employ information from open data sources to simulate events within counties and military installations in the U.S., the U.S. Air Force said Wednesday.

Ryan Kramer, explainable artificial intelligence lead at AFRL's 711th Human Performance Wing, said the team built a SIR model that identifies asymptomatic carriers, hospitalized individuals and people who are in self-isolation. Kramer added that AFRL helmed a simulation library that covers various ranges within every transition parameter and presents potential outcomes in each model.

AFRL plans to release the forecast models in publicly-accessible dashboards. The team has tapped KBR to provide support services for the project.