The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has issued a report that says risks to U.S. national security interests will rise through 2040 as countries respond to the increasing physical effects of climate change.
“Intensifying physical effects will exacerbate geopolitical flashpoints, particularly after 2030, and key countries and regions will face increasing risks of instability and need for humanitarian assistance,” the National Intelligence Estimate report reads.
The report discusses three key judgments and the first one states that as countries argue how to speed up efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, geopolitical tensions are likely to increase.
ODNI notes that cross-border geopolitical flashpoints are likely to worsen driven by climate change’s physical effects.
“Elsewhere, as temperatures rise and more extreme effects manifest, there is a growing risk of conflict over water and migration, particularly after 2030, and an increasing chance that countries will unilaterally test and deploy large-scale solar geoengineering—creating a new area of disputes,” the report reads.
The document also states that developing countries are likely to be vulnerable to the climate change’s physical effects, which could potentially result in instability and internal conflict.