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IARPA Launches Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2; Dr. Seth Goldstein Quoted

2 mins read

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) launched the Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 to stimulate breakthroughs in the science of forecasting to create greater strategic advantages for maintaining global security, predicting economic trends and directing the need for humanitarian efforts.

Participants and teams will earn prizes by creating innovative solutions and methods that can successfully forecast a variety of global events, such as political elections, disease outbreaks and macro-economic indicators. Solvers will be given access to a state-of-the-art stream of data from hundreds of human forecasters and are encouraged to add their own sources and models to create solutions of their own.

“Accurate geopolitical forecasts are crucial to making informed, effective policy. IARPA is interested in identifying the most effective ways to integrate human judgment with other types of data,” says IARPA Program Manager, Dr. Seth Goldstein.

Individuals and teams are eligible to win awards from a total prize purse of $250,000. Scores will be calculated using the Brier Score, incorporating forecast accuracy and confidence. Participants need to be at least 18 years of age and some people or organizations may not be eligible for monetary prizes. You can fine more information regarding IARPA’s GFC2 Challenge right here.


The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) invests in high-risk, high-payoff research programs to tackle some of the most difficult challenges of the agencies and disciplines in the Intelligence Community (IC).

IARPA collaborates across the IC to ensure our research addresses relevant future needs. This cross-community focus ensures our ability to address cross-agency challenges, leverage both operational and R&D expertise from across the IC and coordinate transition strategies with our agency partners.

IARPA does not have an operational mission and does not deploy technologies directly to the field. Instead, IARPA facilitates the transition of research results to our IC customers for operational application.

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